A system of ocean currents that carries heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic may stop operating far sooner than previously anticipated, potentially having disastrous effects on the planet’s climate.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of ocean currents, has been predicted to decline as the globe continues to warm. In spite of this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had earlier predicted that the AMOC will not completely shut down within this century.
The AMOC may come to an end as early as 2025, according to a recent study by a team of scientists from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
The results were released in the journal Nature Communications on Tuesday, July 25.
According to the study, “the ocean current known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse – with 95% certainty – between 2025 and 2095. This prediction was made using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years.
It is predicted that this collapse would most likely occur around 2057.
Even if some climate experts advise caution, citing data problems that may have an impact on accuracy, the mere prospect of the AMOC shutting down so soon is still extremely worrisome.
What is done by AMOC?
Heat is transported out of the tropics by the AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream.
Without AMOC, what would happen?
The habitats of places like South America, western Africa, India, and other parts of South Asia would be severely impacted by rapid temperature increases in the tropics and the disruption of essential tropical rains.
“Climate change could suffer greatly if the AMOC is shut off, for instance by altering how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. This shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to difficult living conditions, professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute said in an official statement. “While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics.
In addition, the flow of warm water from the tropics would be cut off to northern and western Europe, resulting in an increase in storms and very severe winters in those regions. Sea levels along the American east coast would rise as a result of the Gulf Stream’s disappearance.