According to a new BBC analysis, the world has exceeded a crucial warming threshold—at least 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—for an unprecedented number of days.
We are far from having climate change under control. According to a recent assessment, the planet may be on the verge of exceeding a significant warming barrier, which worries scientists. According to the analysis, the average global temperature was still at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels in the first third of 2023.
The dangerous effects of climate change must be avoided by consistently staying below that threshold. The warmest year on record is expected to be 2023, and 2024 could be even hotter.
The study is based on current climate change analysis from the BBC. The most recent findings follow a month of record-breaking temperatures and an exceptionally harsh summer for much of the planet.
Where do we stand now with relation to the global warming threshold?
Global leaders came together in Paris in December 2015 and signed a declaration pledging to work tirelessly to keep the rise in global temperatures this century under 1.5 C and to limit it to no more than 2 C.
The pre-industrial period, between 1850 and 1900, was the time before the extensive use of fossil fuels, and the agreed limitations refer to the difference between current global average temperatures and what they were before that time.
In order to exceed the Paris threshold, one must do so for an average of 20 or 30 days every year, not just for a day or a week.
The current range for this average long-term warming is between 1.1 and 1.2C.
But the longer-term proximity of the Earth to surpassing this level increases the more frequently 1.5C is exceeded for particular days.
This breach initially took place in December 2015 for a brief period of time. The limit has since been routinely exceeded, usually for brief periods of time.
Now, where are we going?
According to a recent BBC research, we may soon exceed the long-term warming limit for the planet. According to statistics from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, up until October 2, roughly 86 days in 2023 have been warmer than average compared to pre-industrial times. Before the year is over, this surpasses the previous record from 2016.
Days with temperature differences greater than 1.5C persisted until September, with some exceeding 1.8C.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the month as a whole was 1.75C over pre-industrial levels, while the year as a whole is about 1.4C above the average between 1850 and 1900.
Even while 2023 is “on track” to set a new record for warmth, the world’s average temperature for the entire year is not anticipated to rise above the 1.5C warming barrier.